This week’s additions to the ‘no-deal’ guidelines brings the total to 80

This week’s batch of guidelines from HMG further underline the message that, without a Brexit deal, we Brits face disruption to every aspect of our lives: travel; trade; access to goods and services; and payments for goods and services.

Together, the no-deal notices will make far-reaching and uncomfortable reading for businesses, consumers and government departments.  The documents themselves are dry, full of technical language – and are as strictly impartial and impersonal as the civil service is duty bound to make them.

Reactions from Business Leaders, Trade Associations and experts, however, are painting a very human picture as they pile up.  The responses are posting thick and fast as, sector by sector, the guidelines are digested and worked through to understand the implications on our every-day business and individual lives. 

The cumulative effect is that leaving the EU on 29 March 2019, just 6 months from now, means we are all affected – and it is just a question of degree.

I am taking the unprecedented step of listing the so-called “technical notices” at the end of this article - so profound are the cumulative impacts.  From satellites in space circulating Earth, to air, sea and coach transport, to taking your pet into Europe and losing our new-found rights to freely access and use internet services - the guidelines spell out just how much Europe has shaped our lives and how we live them – and how much will be lost by a no-deal Brexit.

My job has been to follow the twists and turns of Brexit negotiations over the last 2 years – so the sheer breadth of Brexit impacts coming from a ‘no-deal’ should have been less of a shock to me than most.  But it hasn’t.

The Food and Drink Federation response, broadcast on BBC Radio 4 this morning, is just the latest sector to report.  They have concluded that it is a “grisly prospect” should the UK leave the EU with no deal at all.  There’s a link to the podcast below – find 15 minutes to listen - it’s chilling.  And each of the 80 is no less profound to the future of Britain.

This is not ‘project fear’.  Sector by sector, business leaders, industry experts and academics have surely never been so closely aligned in their analysis and forecast of the impacts of a cliff-edge departure from the bloc after 40 years of working together.

With time running out, people and businesses are need to act on some of the advice now and not wait until November in the hope that a deal can be struck.  There were reports of a briefing yesterday by a European Commission senior official to EU ambassadors on contingency planning in the event of a breakdown in talks and increasing likelihood of a no-deal.  They have made their own minds up on the chances of UK Parliament ratifying any proposal even if one can be negotiated with Brussels.

A leaked document reportedly says that: “Preparedness work has to intensify in the months ahead at national as well as EU level, as uncertainty remains about the outcome of the negotiations and the ratification of a possible deal.”

Jeremy Corbyn speaking at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool today said that unless the agreement struck in Brussels can deliver “exactly the same benefits” as membership of the single market and the customs union, Labour would vote it down “in order to send the government – if it is still in office – straight back to the negotiating table”.

Corbyn is scheduled to meet EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, later this week to explain his position.  Whatever the Labour Party intentions, the timing is now so tight that it may force the UK into a “cliff-edge” Brexit.  European Parliament Greens Leader, Philippe Lamberts, is sceptical: “Labour position is not to do with principles, but about tactical considerations.  It is all about getting the government out of power whatever the cost.”

Meanwhile, according to the leaked document the increasing probability of a no-deal Brexit has prompted the EU’s member states to go over the head of the European commission and assert their right to take “political choices” on potential ‘mini-deals’ with the UK to avoid the worst repercussions of such a scenario, including the grounding of flights between Britain and the EU.

The government said it was pressing to become a "listed" third country when the UK leaves the EU in March 2019, which it says would avoid "burdensome" changes to requirements.  Earlier this month, Barnier reprimanded the Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, after it emerged that the UK government had written to EU capitals to seek bilateral deals on transport, including aviation and haulage.

How sympathetically his approaches have been received was summed up by France’s Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, “I’m sorry to say it so callously: there is something more important for us than the future of the UK, and that’s the future of the EU,” he said. “Any decision that would give European citizens the feeling you can exit the EU and keep all the advantages would be suicidal, and we won’t make that decision.”

Further details of the impacts of the technical notices can be found in our other Insight papers – or contact Brexit Partners for further details of how your business will be affected and details of how we can assist in completing an impact analysis and developing a Brexit response.

Apology:  I apologise to all pet-lovers for choosing today’s picture to go with this piece.  The full impact of a no-deal Brexit is now so stark that I went with an image of an innocent caught up in the repercussions of a decision that is none of its making!


References:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bkpjkl  (Farming Today 26 September 2018)

Industry reacts to no-deal technical notices

UK Government ‘no-deal’ technical notices:

Applying for EU-funded programme

Connecting Europe Facility energy funding if there's no Brexit deal

Delivering humanitarian aid programmes if there’s no Brexit deal

European Regional Development Funding if there’s no Brexit deal

European Social Fund (ESF) grants if there’s no Brexit deal

European Territorial Cooperation funding if there’s no Brexit deal

Funding for UK LIFE projects if there’s no Brexit deal

Horizon 2020 funding if there's no Brexit deal

The government’s guarantee for EU-funded programmes if there’s no Brexit deal

Driving

Aviation safety if there’s no Brexit deal

Aviation security if there’s no Brexit deal

Driving in the EU if there's no Brexit deal

Flights to and from the UK if there’s no Brexit deal

Operating bus or coach services abroad if there’s no Brexit deal

Vehicle insurance if there’s no Brexit deal

Farming

Farm payments if there’s no Brexit deal

Manufacturing and marketing fertilisers if there’s no Brexit deal

Receiving rural development funding if there’s no Brexit deal

Handling civil legal cases

Handling civil legal cases that involve EU countries if there’s no Brexit deal

Importing and exporting

Buying and selling timber if there’s no Brexit deal

Classifying your goods in the UK Trade Tariff if there's no Brexit deal

Commercial road haulage in the EU if there’s no Brexit deal

Exporting animals and animal products if there’s no Brexit deal

Exporting controlled goods if there's no Brexit deal

Importing and exporting plants if there’s no Brexit deal

Importing animals and animal products if there’s no Brexit deal

Trade remedies if there's no Brexit deal

Trading with the EU if there's no Brexit deal

Labelling products and making them safe

Appointing nominated persons to your business if there’s no Brexit deal

Developing genetically modified organisms (GMOs) if there’s no Brexit deal

Labelling tobacco products and e-cigarettes if there’s no Brexit deal

Producing and labelling food if there's no Brexit deal

Producing and processing organic food if there's no Brexit deal

Protecting geographical food and drink names if there’s no Brexit deal

Regulating chemicals (REACH) if there’s no Brexit deal

Trading under the mutual recognition principle if there’s no Brexit deal

Trading goods regulated under the ‘New Approach’ if there’s no Brexit deal

Travelling with a European Firearms Pass if there’s no Brexit deal

Vehicle type approval if there’s no Brexit deal

Meeting business regulations

Accessing public sector contracts if there’s no Brexit deal

Broadcasting and video on demand if there’s no Brexit deal

Copyright if there’s no Brexit deal

Exhaustion of intellectual property rights if there’s no Brexit deal

Merger review and anti-competitive activity if there's no Brexit deal

Patents if there’s no Brexit deal

Trade marks and designs if there’s no Brexit deal

What telecoms businesses should do if there’s no Brexit deal

Money and tax

Banking, insurance and other financial services if there’s no Brexit deal

VAT for businesses if there's no Brexit deal

Personal data and consumer rights

Data protection if there’s no Brexit deal

Protecting the environment

Industrial emissions standards (‘best available techniques’) if there’s no Brexit deal

Reporting CO2 emissions for new cars and vans if there’s no Brexit deal

Upholding environmental standards if there’s no Brexit deal

Using and trading in fluorinated gases and ozone depleting substances if there’s no Brexit deal

Regulating energy

Civil nuclear regulation if there’s no Brexit deal

Generating low-carbon electricity if there’s no Brexit deal

Nuclear research if there’s no Brexit deal

Running an oil or gas business if there’s no Brexit deal

Regulating medicines and medical equipment

Batch testing medicines if there's no Brexit deal

Ensuring blood and blood products are safe if there’s no Brexit deal

How medicines, medical devices and clinical trials would be regulated if there’s no Brexit deal

Quality and safety of organs, tissues and cells if there’s no Brexit deal

Submitting regulatory information on medical products if there’s no Brexit deal

Trading in drug precursors if there’s no Brexit deal

Regulating veterinary medicines

Accessing animal medicine IT systems if there's no Brexit deal

Registration of veterinary medicines if there’s no Brexit deal

Regulation of veterinary medicines if there’s no Brexit deal

Satellites and space

Satellites and space programmes if there’s no Brexit deal

Seafaring

Getting an exemption from maritime security notifications if there’s no Brexit deal

Recognition of seafarer certificates of competency if there’s no Brexit deal

State aid

State aid if there's no Brexit deal

Studying in the UK or the EU

Erasmus+ in the UK if there's no Brexit deal

Travelling between the UK and the EU

Mobile roaming if there’s no Brexit deal

Taking your pet abroad if there's no Brexit deal

Travelling in the Common Travel Area if there’s no Brexit deal

Travelling to the EU with a UK passport if there’s no Brexit deal

Workplace rights

Workplace rights if there’s no Brexit deal

 
John ShuttleworthComment