More than 100 Parliamentary constituencies that voted to ‘Leave’ the EU have now switched their support to ‘Remain’.

Researchers at Focaldata compiled the breakdown by modelling two YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people – and conducted before and after the Brexit option agreed at Chequers in July.

The analysis is one of the most comprehensive assessments of Brexit sentiment since the referendum.  It suggests the shift has been driven by doubts among Labour voters who previously backed Leave. 

These findings could have a significant impact on the Brexit debate later this year.  The trend is starkest in the north of England and Wales – Labour heartlands in which Brexit sentiment appears to be changing.

The results show a majority of constituencies now favour remaining in the EU. 

According to the Focaldata model, the 632 parliamentary seats in England, Scotland and Wales were previously split:

REMAIN - 229               LEAVE – 403                                            (As at 2016)

The same model now shows that in 112 seats a majority of people have shifted to being pro-Remain:

REMAIN – 341              LEAVE – 288                  SPLIT - 3           (As at July 2018)

Constituencies returning the biggest shift among the 112 swing seats from Leave to Remain are:

Liverpool Walton                                     14.3%

Knowsley                                                   13.4%

Swansea East                                            12.8%

Hayes & Harlington                                 12.8%

Oldham West & Royton                          12.6%

Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough     12.4%

Hull North                                                 12.4%

Birmingham Yardley                                12.4%

Rhondda                                                    12.3%

Warley                                                        12.0%

Source: Constituency modelling conducted by Focaldata, based on YouGov polling of 15,340 people in June and July 2018.  Funded by Best for Britain/Hope not Hate

All 632 Parliamentary seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study.  Since 2016 the results show that 112 have switched from Leave to Remain.  341 seats now have a majority ‘Remain’ - up from 229 at the referendum.

97 seats have switched in England, one seat has switched in Scotland, and 14 (out of 40) seats in Wales changed from ‘Leave’ to ‘Remain’.

Overall, the model puts ‘Remain’ on 53% support - with 47% backing ‘Leave’.  Young voters and those from ethnic minorities have driven the switch to Remain.

Among the constituencies to switch from Leave to Remain is that of Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and face of the Leave campaign.  Support for Remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.

Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also emerged as having a pro-Remain majority.  Support for Remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%.

There was also a 12.8-point swing to Remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.

John ShuttleworthComment