More than 100 Parliamentary constituencies that voted to ‘Leave’ the EU have now switched their support to ‘Remain’.
Researchers at Focaldata compiled the breakdown by modelling two YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people – and conducted before and after the Brexit option agreed at Chequers in July.
The analysis is one of the most comprehensive assessments of Brexit sentiment since the referendum. It suggests the shift has been driven by doubts among Labour voters who previously backed Leave.
These findings could have a significant impact on the Brexit debate later this year. The trend is starkest in the north of England and Wales – Labour heartlands in which Brexit sentiment appears to be changing.
The results show a majority of constituencies now favour remaining in the EU.
According to the Focaldata model, the 632 parliamentary seats in England, Scotland and Wales were previously split:
REMAIN - 229 LEAVE – 403 (As at 2016)
The same model now shows that in 112 seats a majority of people have shifted to being pro-Remain:
REMAIN – 341 LEAVE – 288 SPLIT - 3 (As at July 2018)
Constituencies returning the biggest shift among the 112 swing seats from Leave to Remain are:
Liverpool Walton 14.3%
Swansea East 12.8%
Hayes & Harlington 12.8%
Oldham West & Royton 12.6%
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 12.4%
Hull North 12.4%
Birmingham Yardley 12.4%
Source: Constituency modelling conducted by Focaldata, based on YouGov polling of 15,340 people in June and July 2018. Funded by Best for Britain/Hope not Hate
All 632 Parliamentary seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study. Since 2016 the results show that 112 have switched from Leave to Remain. 341 seats now have a majority ‘Remain’ - up from 229 at the referendum.
97 seats have switched in England, one seat has switched in Scotland, and 14 (out of 40) seats in Wales changed from ‘Leave’ to ‘Remain’.
Overall, the model puts ‘Remain’ on 53% support - with 47% backing ‘Leave’. Young voters and those from ethnic minorities have driven the switch to Remain.
Among the constituencies to switch from Leave to Remain is that of Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and face of the Leave campaign. Support for Remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.
Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also emerged as having a pro-Remain majority. Support for Remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%.
There was also a 12.8-point swing to Remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.
- May 2019 3
- April 2019 16
- March 2019 31
- February 2019 29
- January 2019 31
- December 2018 28
- November 2018 20
- October 2018 11
- September 2018 12
- August 2018 20
- July 2018 14
- June 2018 4
- May 2018 11
- April 2018 8
- March 2018 6
- February 2018 13
- January 2018 8
- December 2017 8
- November 2017 7
- October 2017 14
- September 2017 4
- June 2017 2