Brexit’s first wave will affect 10,000 UK finance jobs.

A perspective on the latest Reuters survey.

According to a new Reuters survey, around 10,000 finance jobs will move from the UK as a result of Brexit. The largest destinations for these jobs will be Frankfurt followed by Paris. Reuters surveyed 123 firms across the financial services sector.

Key takeaways from the survey include:

  • Almost a half of the companies believe they need to relocate staff or restructure their businesses because of Brexit;
  • A third of firms contend there would be no impact on staffing;
  • Responses gathered from 39 firms employing at least 350,000 people, estimate that 10,000 jobs in total would be relocated out of the UK.

The UK employs 1.1 million in financial services. If the figures are accurate, job loss are a good deal lower than previous estimates of 30,000 to 75,000.

Brexit Partner’s view is that there will be possibly three waves of job losses:

  1. Wave one will include senior decision-making functions. Whilst 10,000 jobs are less than 1% of the total people employed, it will be a large proportion of senior role;
  2. Wave two is likely to see larger number of roles migrate to EEA based outsourcers. These roles include legal, regulatory, HR, Finance, IT and customer administration. Some outsourcing firms we have been speaking to are planning to conservatively increase headcount by 100%;
  3. Wave three will see restructuring of businesses around the new HQ functions with further migration of jobs from the UK. Experience over the last number of years shows that firms which have established European HQ functions have increased headcount on average between five and ten fold following the initial move of critical decision making resources.